2006/11/16

Poker Playing Style and Investment Strategy


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In my "previous life" I used to laugh at many of my peers. Generally speaking, they believed that "buy and hold" was an actual investment strategy. Worse yet, they believed "buy and hold" was the correct all around investment strategy. They'd say stuff such as "well, over time, markets ALWAYS go up..." And throw other things in there starting with "we all know that..." and using supporting charts that start off in the middle of a year, but imply that it's a year over year chart. And these brokers tell their customers to pay attention not to the market today, but instead to where it will be 20 years from now. Or, "Joe, what do you mean you want to sell, I thought you were in this for the long haul... WE need to hang in there... Buy and hold, remember?"

To blindly invest and believe, in my opinion, is a mistake. Buy and hold was a great posture to have when the market itself was in a tremendous upswing, as it was in the majority of the 90's. In the 90's buy and hold was the correct POSTURE, because most all was going up. It was however never a philosophy, just a posture.



In a structurally fair market, buy and hold investers will tend to get crushed. Structurally fair markets tend to feature stocks going up and down equally, both in magnitude and quantity. The correct posture, generally speaking, during these fair markets are properly timing the market. Picking your spot, moving in when the time's right and leaving the party on a high note, before it dies down.

I believe playing hold'em, the same is to be said. I believe that there's a time to play tight, aggressive poker. I believe there's a time to play a more passive, deceptive game. I do not believe that I am a tight aggressive player. I don't believe I am a weak-tighter, nor a loose-passive player for that matter. If I were to put myself into a catigory of what kind of ring game hold'em player I am, I'd say I was an observant, thinking poker player.

I'd say I can and do adjust my game to table conditions. Generally speaking, I know when I can limp with shit OOP and not have my ass handed to me. I try to know when top pair is good, and when yours is not. I can play hard, I can play soft... I can be aggressive and effective, I can be passive and cause you to fail. The point is, I am a thinking player. A cereberal assassin on the tables, if you will. And sure, I may sound full of myself by saying that... My point is, I strive to understand the game of hold'em. I've come to understand it in such a way to know that it's illogical to think that playing "a certain style" is also a correct overall philosophy. I believe that effective playing styles vary by opponent, by hand, and by table conditions. I believe I am wise enough to recognize that and to adjust my play.

I also believe that my few readers are insightful enough to understand and embrace the same.

Mike