Offtopic: Kentucky Derby Thoughts...

I can't go another day without talking ponies, given the Kentucky Derby is a few days away. The horses have drawn their posts and opening lines set. I'll be spending the next few days intermittantly "doing my homework," cruching numbers and assigning my own odds to the horses. I have a "hobby level at best" interest in the races, specifically the triple crown races, and I've been somewhat successful using my little handicapping formula, especially in the Derby.

I'd previously posted on the poker pub on my "uneducated derby thoughts," where I named three horses I was liking. Of which, two are in the derby, which is not bad for futures predictions without crunching numbers back in March. Point Determined (12-1), and Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1) are in, First Samuari is not. Back in March, Brother Derek was the favorite and he still seems to be at 3-1. I had no reason to not like him before, and do not now... however, without having crunched numbers, I'm still not able to get behind him in this race. We'll see though in the next few days when I crunch my numbers and put the horses to the statistical test.

The field is shaping up as follows:

1 Jazil 30-1
2 Steppenwolfer 30-1
3 Keyed Entry 30-1
4 Sinister Minister 12-1
5 Point Determined 12-1
6 Showing Up 20-1
7 Bob and John 12-1
8 Barbaro 4-1
9 Sharp Humor 20-1
10 A.P. Warrior 15-1
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 10-1
12 Private Vow 50-1
13 Bluegrass Cat 30-1
14 Deputy Glitters 50-1
15 Seaside Retreat 50-1
16 Cause to Believe 50-1
17 Lawyer Ron 4-1
18 Brother Derek 3-1
19 Storm Treasure 50-1
20 Flashy Bull 50-1

I'll be covering the Derby in greater detail over the next few days, as the "numbers" come out tonight that interest me. By Friday, I'll have my predictions.

As for tonight, the CheckRayz Leaderboard poker tour heats up with a $5+.50 $100 added tournament at River Belle Poker. Expect the A game.

Mike