Finally, (Kentucky) Derby Day is upon us. As per my "normal protocol," I've checked the weather, reevaluated my statistics, crunched them one additional way, and checked the current odds. Below you'll find my derby predictions, which barring a miracle/catastrophy, I'll stick with until post time. I got the majority of my handicapping in on Thursday, so as to avoid the hype. Here's where I take the hype factor, and some other things and combine them with the infamous "pseudo-scientific" method of mine. My assigned odds listed after pp and horse name, morning line odds followed by "current odds" (of close of advanced wagering on Friday night) in parentheses.
Win Contenders - Horses I believe to have a high likelyhood to be racing to first place:
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 4-1 (10-1, 7-1)
3 Keyed Entry 5-1 (30-1, 42-1) "the $42 dollar horse" perhaps? (handicapping reference)
4 Sinister Minister 5-1 (12-1, 5-1)
Money Contenders - Horses I believe to have little likelyhood of winning the race, but stand a greater than random chance of finishing in the money (second or third):
8 Barbaro 8-1 (4-1, 5-1)
18 Brother Derek 9-1 (3-1, 10-1)
9 Sharp Humor 10-1 (20-1, 25-1)
16 Cause to Believe 20-1 (50-1, 26-1)
All other horses, I believe have significantly less than a random chance of winning/finishing in the money.
How do you bet this?
Well, honestly I don't know how YOU bet this. I do know how I plan to bet this though, significant thanks to "chippy" for helping me carve this out into a betting plan that makes sense with respect to the "exotic bets."
For starters, all my win contenders will be bet accordingly. So, count on a ticket reading 11,3,4 win. The horses in that universe will also be bet to place/show providing they're overlays in my odds to the public odds. Additionally, my "money contenders" will get place/show bets if they're in overlay territory. I don't have them as legit win contenders, so I will bet them off as place show (in the money). Right now, assuming the odds do not change (they will), I'm betting 9 and 16 to place and show each.
As for the exotic bets, I was considering going with the superfecta, however, i think the trifecta is more along my comfort level.
11,3,4 with 11,3,4,8,18,9 with 11,3,4,8,18,9 will be my most likely trifecta bet, unless I for some reason bump one of the money contenders off the chart.
Additionally, I'll work through some exacta bets, with 11,3,4 wheeling through my money contenders list.
I do have a positive EV outlook on my races. I know which horses I like and more importantly why I like them. I'm also keeping my eye on the other horses, and understanding why the public likes them. Using the two perspectives, I've achieved my ideal bets. If the perfect race is run, I'm a winner (based on my figures, and assuming my "pseudo-scientific" method is dead on). If a less than perfect race is run, I'm at least playing the +EV ponys, the ones who I would play every time this race is run based on the information available right now.
Good luck and have fun betting the ponys.
Mike
