Limit Poker Tournament Hand Analysis Continued... Mailbag

To continue or discussion on Judith's Limit Poker Tournament Hand, we recall that Judith had Ad-Qs in the BB, our villian had 7c-5c. Blinds were 3000/6000. We were on the bubble (12 player remaining spread out over two poker tables. Judith was in fourth place overall with a bit over 60000 tournament poker chips, an M of roughly 6, effective M of 4 - placing her in the red zone. Our villian had Judith covered, with 80000 tournament poker chips, and M of 8 and effective M of 5, also in the red zone, based on my previous poker endgame discussions.

When last we left off our villian had completed the blind, only to run into a Judith raise, which he donkily called. The pot contained 24,000 tourney chips (each person having 50% equity in the pot) and the flop came 7s Qh 3d, giving Judith top pair with a sweet kicker, but giving our villian middle pair with a poor kicker.

My flop analysis from the villian's point of view:

While I cannot say for certain that this flop did or did not help her, I know it helped me. One small problem however, I was looking to flop a straight or a flush and I got a pair. One thing that is working in my favor is that the flop is the "cheap date" if I check, its only 6k of my stack if and when she bets out... and I do have middle pair (I'm beginning to forget that my hand was not a "winner" when it pairs). However, if I just check and call here, I'm not able to put her on a hand. She could have a pocket pair, of which I'm currently beating 4 of them (2's, 4s, fives and sixes). If she has Ax, I'm beating all but two of them right now. I'm almost beginning to wish I would have reraised preflop or did something to help her further define her hand to me. I do, however, need to show strength right now. I'm going to bet out, to see if she raises me trying to get her to further define her hand. If she raises here and I call, I'm obligating myself to call the turn and the river though because barring an obvious card hitting the board the odds will be too good for me to not check-call to the river on this one. But I do have her covered and can always pull a surprise later if need be. So, I'll bet 6k here.

The masses regarding villians situation:

7 of the ten ("ironically" the five who call and the two who cite the suited hand arguement) all bet here "because they have a pair." The more aggressive answer, the one praying for a raise to reraise, would check and call here. The remaining two check and fold to a bet.

My take on Judith's hand:

This is perfect, a flop lacking anything really connected. How do I get the most of his chips into the center, I wonder? I don't see him calling with q-7, q-3, 7-3, or 4-5. I'm surely the best hand here. He'd have likely reraised with a pocket pair. I think this hand is a good slowplay canidate for this flop. If he checks, I'll check behind him. If he bets, I'll just call. I want to continue to keep the odds low for him to not draw on me "correctly."

The masses on Judith's hand:

9 out of ten bet, because they have top pair. One player surveyed checks "because AQ always finds a way to lose."

Real action: villian checks, judith bets (6k), villian calls cleanly.

Turn card: pot contains 36000 tournament chips. 10s hits the board.

my take on villian: OK, now I have third pair. Two cards are on the board that more than likely could have helped her. I've not shown strength so far, and its totally unlikely I have the best hand. She is capable of playing Q-10s, but likely has ace - something sizable. She "could" be holding one of my "favorite" hands (KJ), which this card would have helped her out. There's a flush draw on the board and a straight draw, along with two big cards. If I bet and she reraises, I'm in for half my stack with one card to come. If I check and call, though not my style, I'm in for about half my stack come the river. I'm already too far into this hand and "should" fold. I do believe the only way to win right now is to bet my hand though. Do I want to bet this hand? Do I think she might fold to a bet? Meh, I don't care... I'd rather save my chips for a better hand. I'd check/fold, even though the numbers suggest check/call, as there's not enough hands I have beat at present.

Masses take on villian:

Five of ten bet "because they have a pair." Two of the original seven, plus the original aggressor check/call. The remaining check/fold.

My take on Judith: Bet/reraise. Unless he's slowplaying a monster, I have him beat.

Others on Judith's hand: 9 of ten bet. The remaining one person throws this hand away regardless of whether or not a bet is made by the small blind because "AQ always loses and I'd rather muck it right now than see the river card that will surely beat me."

Actual play: villian checks, judith bets 12k, villian calls.

River: Pot contains 24k from preflop, 12k from the flop, 24k from the turn (5 BB or big bets). River card is 7d.

My take on Judith's hand: Well, at least the good news is that the board didn't flush. The bad news is that I don't have him on a flush draw though. This is a horrible card for me. I was sure I had the best hand all the way through, but now I'm not so sure. Although, if he is going to make a steal attempt, it would probably be now. I'm not sure I want to fall for that though, so if he bets, I'll just call. If he checks, I bet/call. Either way, I'll still have enough tourney chips left to do something, but not nearly enough as if that damn card didn't hit the board.

Masses on Judith: 9 of ten bet, "because they have top pair." One of ten folds regardless of action, however he cites he checks this through or folds to a bet saying "I knew I should have thrown this away on the turn! Its unfair that I have to "play along" with this. I'm not even in the hand preflop! Damn you Mike, I can't even get a hypothetical win out of you!"

My take on villian: great card! As long as she's not holding ace seven or a set, I'm da man. Will she bet this though? I'm not chancing whether or not she'll bet, as the correct move is for me to now bet out, hoping for a raise and then I will reraise. I need to run up my bar tab here.

Others on villian: 10 out of ten bet out here, because they have three cards the same.

Actual action: Villian bets, judith raises, villian reraises, as does judith... she ends up allin with the second best hand and loses to the villian. NH, gg.

Overall analysis: she lost the hand. She didn't necessarily play it "incorrectly" in my opinion. Slowplaying was not "incorrect" either. By playing it the way she did, she provided him "better" odds to draw (raise preflop put 4 big bets in the pot before the flop came). He was justified calling a 1/2 bet on the flop. Additionally, the math says he was justified calling the lone turn bet, if you didn't factor in the implied river bet he'd also have to call. The river comes, he was correct in betting out. Judith, in my opinion, erred when she raises, as she could have continued, though somewhat crippled if she made a mere call. He called, saying at the very least he was on the board. With the board pairing, he "could" have improved.

On the other hand, if she disguised her hand preflop, by checking and then checked the flop, the pot is not big enough to justify his call on the turn. I think she wins this pot on the turn if it were smaller. There are many ways to assess this hand and its play. Obviously the masses (the whole ten people who are not statistically significant due to the very small sample size) see the board differently than perhaps you and I do, feel comfortable betting "because they have a pair." It is apparant that "most people" don't ponder what hands someone else might have. They were only "betting their hand" they weren't respecting the board and demonstrated no clue that the opposition could beat them because "they had a pair" (great thing to remember when playing against "the masses"... they bet or call "because they have a pair... and will even call when they "seem" to be beat).

I'm sure this hand will be discussed in further detail at some other time... but as for now... onto the mailbag.

Mail time!

First email comes from everyone who accumulated 1000 rake points since March 1st at Poker4ever:

BeerGuy, what's the password for tonight's $500 freeroll at poker4ever?

The password is oneGrake . There needs to be 20 peeps who have accumulated 1000 rake points for this event to get underway, so take that for what its worth.

Next one comes from everyone who was eligable for the CheckRayz Rewards Tournament:

Have we rescheduled the rewards tourney yet?

Yep, this Thursday at River Belle. See your invitation for more details... I sent it yesterday.

Moving on...

If I followed the instructions, and could not register for the rewards tournament, when will I be able to register?

You'll be able to register on Monday morning if you're unable to register, providing you follow the instructions I provided.

Next email is regarding the recent buyin at kiwi:
why the hell didnt you just send the password out for the buuy-in game?? I mean what the hell! I can understand a freeroll. Anyhow i misssed joining by 1/2 a min.

It is my policy that rarely give out passwords via email... and by rarely I mean almost never... I don't care if it is a freeroll or a buyin. I like the "semi-closed" community we have. If someone is going to choose to play with us, I want them to take the time to sign up and obtain the password on their own. I do not wish to make it easy for the people out there to "crash" our tournament without an invitation from me. That being said, I have no problem with people seeing our tournament last minute, registering on our site, joining the tournament and becoming a member of our community. Realistically, I know that passwords are sometimes "given out" by people to their friends without telling them they have to register. Ethically, this is "stealing" considering that all tournaments are listed as "private" and the terms are that one must be a member of checkrayz to participate. I don't leave my door unlocked at home. If someone breaks in to steal from me, I make it hard, I lock the door. The same stands true with passwords. If I don't issue them via email, and take measures to protect them, I'm not guaranteeing they won't be stolen. I am, however, taking measures to protect them and making it a bit more difficult for them to "steal" from us. That being said, I'll almost never give them out via email.

As for others, keep that in mind next time anyone considers handing out my passwords. I work hard to get money added to the tournaments we hold. I have two general rules, if you cannot play, don't register or just unregister... Second, do not give out the password to your buds. If ever I catch anyone giving out passwords, I will do whatever I can to "sanction" these individuals. Nuff said.

Final email for the mailbag this week:

Beer, Did you REALLY give out $100 and pokertracker for that one tournament you held at River Belle?

Damn right I did! $100 transferred to the winner within 30 minutes of the tournament ending, and he received the pokertracker activation roughly 24 hours after the end of the tournament... all as advertised. Speaking of which, Norm, how's it working for ya?

Mike



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